Feinberg Forecast: Scott’s First Post-TIFF Look at the Oscar Race

PLEASE NOTE: This forecast, assembled by The Hollywood Reporter’s executive editor of awards coverage Scott Feinberg, reflects his best attempt to predict the behavior of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, not his personal preferences. He arrives at these projections by drawing upon consultations with voters and industry insiders, analysis of marketing and awards campaigns, results of awards ceremonies that precede the Oscars, and the history of the Oscars itself. There will be regular updates to reflect new developments.

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Best Picture

Frontrunners
Oppenheimer (Universal)
Barbie (Warner Bros.)
Poor Things (Searchlight)
Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple/Paramount)
American Fiction (Amazon/MGM)
Past Lives (A24)
The Holdovers (Focus)
Maestro (Netflix)
The Zone of Interest (A24)
Nyad (Netflix)

Major Threats
Anatomy of a Fall (Neon)
All of Us Strangers (Searchlight)
Dream Scenario (A24)
Origin (Neon)
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (Sony)
American Symphony (Netflix)
Rustin (Netflix)

Possibilities
The Taste of Things (IFC)
Air (Amazon/MGM)
May December (Netflix)
Saltburn (Amazon/MGM)
Dumb Money (Sony)
Fair Play (Netflix)

Can’t Yet Call
The Color Purple (Warner Bros.)
Ferrari (Neon)
The Iron Claw (A24)
The Killer (Netflix)
Napoleon (Apple/Sony)
Priscilla (A24)

Best Director

Frontrunners
Greta Gerwig (Barbie) — podcast
Christopher Nolan (Oppenheimer)
Yorgos Lanthimos (Poor Things)
Martin Scorsese (Killers of the Flower Moon)
Jonathan Glazer (The Zone of Interest)

Major Threats
Celine Song (Past Lives)
Cord Jefferson (American Fiction)
Bradley Cooper (Maestro)
Alexander Payne (The Holdovers)
Justine Triet (Anatomy of a Fall)
Andrew Haigh (All of Us Strangers)
Ava DuVernay (Origin)

Possibilities
Jimmy Chin and Chai Vasarhelyi (Nyad)
Todd Haynes (May December) — podcast
Emerald Fennell (Saltburn)
Ben Affleck (Air) — podcast
Joaquim Dos Santos, Kemp Powers and Justin K. Thompson (Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse)
Anh Hung Tran (The Taste of Things)
George C. Wolfe (Rustin)

Can’t Yet Call
Blitz Bazawule (The Color Purple)
Sofia Coppola (Priscilla)
Garth Davis (Foe)
Sean Durkin (The Iron Claw)
David Fincher (The Killer)
Michael Mann (Ferrari)
Ridley Scott (Napoleon)

Best Actor

Frontrunners
Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer)
Colman Domingo (Rustin)
Leonardo DiCaprio (Killers of the Flower Moon)
Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers)
Bradley Cooper (Maestro)

Major Threats
Jeffrey Wright (American Fiction)
Nicolas Cage (Dream Scenario) — podcast
Andrew Scott (All of Us Strangers)
Matt Damon (Air)
Barry Keoghan (Saltburn)
Christian Friedel (The Zone of Interest)

Possibilities
Alden Ehrenreich (Fair Play)
Teo Yoo (Past Lives)
Kôji Yakusho (Perfect Days)
Benoît Magimel (The Taste of Things)
Gael García Bernal (Cassandro)
Paul Dano (Dumb Money)
Taron Egerton (Tetris) — podcast

Can’t Yet Call
Adam Driver (Ferrari)
Zac Efron (The Iron Claw)
Michael Fassbender (The Killer)
Paul Mescal (Foe)
Joaquin Phoenix (Napoleon)

Best Actress

Frontrunners
Annette Bening (Nyad)
Emma Stone (Poor Things) — podcast
Margot Robbie (Barbie) — podcast
Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon)
Carey Mulligan (Maestro) — podcast

Major Threats
Natalie Portman (May December) — podcast
Sandra Hüller (Anatomy of a Fall)
Greta Lee (Past Lives)
Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor (Origin) — podcast
Phoebe Dynevor (Fair Play)

Possibilities
Helen Mirren (Golda) — podcast
Leonie Benesch (The Teacher’s Lounge)
Jodie Comer (The Bikeriders) — podcast
Eve Hewson (Flora and Son)

Can’t Yet Call
Fantasia Barrino (The Color Purple)
Saoirse Ronan (Foe) — podcast
Cailee Spaeny (Priscilla)

Best Supporting Actor

Frontrunners
Robert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer)
Ryan Gosling (Barbie)
Mark Ruffalo (Poor Things)
Robert De Niro (Killers of the Flower Moon) — podcast
Jesse Plemons (Killers of the Flower Moon) — podcast

Major Threats
Sterling K. Brown (American Fiction) — podcast
Willem Dafoe (Poor Things) — podcast
Charles Melton (May December)
John Magaro (Past Lives)
Matt Damon (Oppenheimer)
Chris Messina (Air)

Possibilities
Dominic Sessa (The Holdovers)
Glenn Howerton (BlackBerry)
Eddie Marsan (Fair Play)
Jon Bernthal (Origin)
Richard E. Grant (Saltburn) — podcast

Can’t Yet Call
Colman Domingo (The Color Purple)
Corey Hawkins (The Color Purple) — podcast
Tahar Rahim (Napoleon)
Jeremy Allen White (The Iron Claw)

Best Supporting Actress

Frontrunners
Da’Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers)
Sandra Hüller (The Zone of Interest)
Jodie Foster (Nyad) — podcast
Julianne Moore (May December)
Rosamund Pike (Saltburn) — podcast

Major Threats

Juliette Binoche (The Taste of Things)
Emily Blunt (Oppenheimer)
Viola Davis (Air)
Claire Foy (All of Us Strangers) — podcast
America Ferrera (Barbie)

Possibilities
Florence Pugh (Oppenheimer) — podcast
Rhea Perlman (Barbie)
Niecy Nash-Betts (Origin)
Julianne Nicholson (Dream Scenario)

Can’t Yet Call
Halle Bailey (The Color Purple)
Danielle Brooks (The Color Purple)
Penélope Cruz (Ferrari) — podcast
H.E.R. (The Color Purple) — podcast
Taraji P. Henson (The Color Purple) — podcast
Lily James (The Iron Claw) — podcast
Vanessa Kirby (Napoleon)
Tilda Swinton (The Killer)
Maura Tierney (The Iron Claw)
Shailene Woodley (Ferrari)

Best Adapted Screenplay

Frontrunners
Killers of the Flower Moon (Eric Roth & Martin Scorsese)
Oppenheimer (Christopher Nolan)
Poor Things (Tony McNamara)
American Fiction (Cord Jefferson)
The Zone of Interest (Jonathan Glazer)

Major Threats
All of Us Strangers (Andrew Haigh)
Origin (Ava DuVernay)
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (Dave Callaham, Phil Lord & Chris Miller)

Possibilities
Nyad (Julia Cox)
Dumb Money (Rebecca Angelo & Lauren Schuker Blum)
The Bikeriders (Jeff Nichols)

Can’t Yet Call
The Color Purple (Marcus Gardley)
Ferrari (Michael Mann, Troy Kennedy Martin & Brock Yates)
Foe (Garth Davis & Iain Reid)
The Killer (Alexis Nolent & Kevin Walker)
Priscilla (Sofia Coppola)

Best Original Screenplay

Frontrunners
Barbie (Noah Baumbach & Greta Gerwig) — podcast (Gerwig)
Past Lives (Celine Song)
The Holdovers (David Hemingson)
Dream Scenario (Kristoffer Borgli)
Anatomy of a Fall (Arthur Harari and Justine Triet)

Major Threats
Maestro (Bradley Cooper and Josh Singer)
The Teacher’s Lounge (İlker Catak and Johannes Duncker)
Saltburn (Emerald Fennell)
Fair Play (Chloe Domont)
Air (Alex Convery)

Possibilities
May December (Sam Burch and Alex Mechanik)
Rustin (Dustin Lance Black and Julian Breece)
Cassandro (David Teague and Roger Ross Williams) — podcast (Williams)
Flora and Son (John Carney)

Can’t Yet Call
The Iron Claw (Sean Durkin)
Napoleon (David Scarpa)

Best International Feature

Frontrunners
The Zone of Interest (United Kingdom)
The Taste of Things (France)
The Teacher’s Lounge (Germany)
Perfect Days (Japan)
20 Days in Mariupol (Ukraine)

Can’t Yet Call
Io Capitano (Italy)
Godland (Iceland)
Shayda (Australia)
Society of the Snow (Spain)
Fallen Leaves (Finland)
Blaga’s Lessons (Bulgaria)
Four Daughters (Tunisia)
About Dry Grasses (Turkey)

Best Documentary Feature

Frontrunners
American Symphony (Netflix)
Kokomo City (Magnolia)
The Pigeon Tunnel (Apple)
The Deepest Breath (Netflix)
Beyond Utopia (Roadside)

Major Threats
20 Days in Mariupol (PBS)
The Eternal Memory (MTV)
The Mission (Nat Geo)
Stamped from the Beginning (Netflix) — podcast (Roger Ross Williams)
Still (Apple) — podcast (Davis Guggenheim)
Silver Dollar Road (Amazon)

Possibilities
Bobi Wine: The People’s President (Nat Geo)
Anselm (Sideshow/Janus)
Every Body (Focus)
To Kill a Tiger (still seeking U.S. distribution)
King Coal (still seeking U.S. distribution)
The League (Magnolia)

Can’t Yet Call
aka Mr. Chow (still seeking U.S. distribution)
Black Ice (Lionsgate)
A Compassionate Spy (Magnolia)
Copa 71 (still seeking U.S. distribution)
Defiant (still seeking U.S. distribution)
The Disappearance of Shere Hite (IFC)
Hollywoodgate (still seeking U.S. distribution)
Lakota Nation vs. United States (IFC)
Little Richard: I Am Everything (Magnolia)
Menus-Plaisirs Les Troisgros (Zipporah)
Orlando, My Political Biography (Sideshow/Janus)
Periodical (MSNBC)
What the Hell Happened to Blood, Sweat & Tears? (Abramorama)
While We Watched (PBS)
Your Fat Friend (still seeking distribution)

Best Animated Feature

Frontrunners
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (Sony)
Elemental (Pixar) — podcast (Pete Docter)
The Boy and the Heron (GKIDS)
They Shot the Piano Player (Sony Classics)
Nimona (Netflix)

Major Threats
The Super Mario Bros. Movie (Illumination)
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem (Paramount)

Can’t Yet Call
Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget (Netflix)
Ernest & Celestine: A Trip to Gibbertia (GKIDS)
The First Slam Dunk (GKIDS)
Leo (Netflix)
Migration (Illumination)
Robot Dreams (Neon)
Stopmotion (IFC)
Suzume (Toho)
Trolls Band Together (DreamWorks)
Wish (Disney)